The Austin New Construction Report, Q4 2026

01

The market is carrying about six months of supply, which favours buyers

5.9 months

Roughly 4,150 active new-construction listings against an average of about 710 closings a month through May to August gives 5.9 months of supply. Six months is the conventional dividing line between a seller's market and a buyer's market, so Austin new construction is sitting right on it, and the direction of travel matters more than the number: inventory eased 1.7 percent between the September and October snapshots while the median list price slipped 1.2 percent.

What it means for a buyer

Builders are competing for a finite number of buyers rather than fielding offers. That is the condition in which incentives get generous, and it is why the negotiation is worth having rather than assuming the price on the sign is the price.

02

What sells is cheaper than what is listed, by about 7 percent

$381,990 sold vs $409,990 listed

The median new-construction home that actually closed went for $381,990. The median home currently on the market asks $409,990. That $28,000 gap is not a discount being negotiated; it is composition. The market is clearing from the bottom, and the homes accumulating on the market are the more expensive ones.

What it means for a buyer

Leverage is concentrated above the median. If you are shopping at $350,000 you are competing with other buyers for the fastest-moving product. At $500,000 and up you are the scarce party, and you should be negotiating like it.

03

Sales are running about 710 a month, or roughly 8,500 a year

740, 714, 744, 640

Closings for May, June, July and August came in at 740, 714, 744 and 640 respectively, a steady pace with a softening at the end of summer. September currently shows 459, but closings report with a lag and that figure should be treated as provisional rather than as a collapse. At the four-month average the metro is absorbing roughly 8,500 new homes a year.

What it means for a buyer

This is a large, liquid market, not a thin one. There are enough transactions that comparable sales are meaningful in most submarkets, which matters when you are deciding whether a builder's price is defensible.

04

Perry Homes and Taylor Morrison are sitting on inventory; D.R. Horton is clearing it

0.28 against 1.80

Comparing each builder's closings to its active listings in the same samples gives a rough sell-through ratio. Below 1.0 means a builder is holding more inventory than it is currently moving. Perry Homes came in at 0.28 (9 closings against 32 active listings) and CastleRock at 0.29, with Taylor Morrison at 0.55 and Lennar at 0.71. At the other end, D.R. Horton reached 1.80, Pulte 1.47 and Ashton Woods 1.21. Treat small samples cautiously; the ratios for builders with fewer than ten active listings are not reliable.

What it means for a buyer

A builder carrying unsold homes has a reason to deal and a quarter-end to hit. If two communities suit you equally, the one run by the builder with the slower sell-through is where the written incentive is likely to be stronger.

05

Lennar is both the biggest seller and the biggest holder of standing inventory

111 active listings in sample

Lennar led closings in the sample at 79 and also held by far the most active listings at 111, more than double the next builder. D.R. Horton was close behind on sales at 74 but held only 41 active. So the two largest builders in the metro are in quite different positions: one is selling hard and restocking, the other is carrying a deep bench of unsold homes.

What it means for a buyer

Volume and leverage are not the same thing. The builder with the most homes for sale is often the one most willing to move on a specific home that has been sitting, which is an argument for asking about aged inventory by name rather than shopping the model home.

06

Half the metro's new-home sales happen in six submarkets

Austin, Georgetown, Buda, Kyle, Liberty Hill, Hutto

Within the closings sample, the city of Austin led with 142, followed by Georgetown at 90, Buda 53, Kyle 49, Liberty Hill 46 and Hutto 43. Median closed prices across those vary widely: Austin at $574,900 and Leander at $649,990 at the top, against Jarrell at $259,900, Elgin at $292,990 and San Marcos at $299,900 at the bottom.

What it means for a buyer

The same metro contains a $260,000 market and a $650,000 market twenty-five miles apart. Deciding your submarket before your budget, rather than the other way round, saves a lot of wasted touring.

07

About a quarter of new construction is single story, and it sells cheaper

23.3 percent, median $363,090

182 of 780 active listings describe the home as single story or one level, at a median of $363,090 against $414,835 for new construction generally. They concentrate where lots are wider and land is cheaper: Georgetown leads, then Hutto, Kyle, Austin, San Marcos and Buda.

What it means for a buyer

One-level homes are more available and less expensive than most buyers assume. They are also harder to search for than they should be, because the structured MLS field for storeys is not populated in this market, so portal filters miss most of them and the description is the only reliable signal.